This guide gives a brief overview of Helium Trades, with trading and usage tips to help you take full advantage of the platform.
Navigating The Site
To get to our top performing forecasts, click the blue button in the upper-right corner, then choose either Stock Models, Crypto Models, Top IV Models, Portfolio Architect, or Stock Options. Updated 24/7, this is a collection of our most accurate forecasts and most profitable trades. To view your balanced news feed, make sure you’re logged in and then click the HeliumTrades icon in the upper-left.
To follow stocks, turn on notifications, and fully customize your feed, click Customize on the top menu. To follow our trading and announcements, follow Helium Trades on Medium.
Understanding Helium Charts
Model accuracy can be quickly gauged by the Helium Score, where values range from -1 to +1 (+1.0 is a perfect score). The higher the helium score, the more confident the model is in its prediction ability.
Proton Score represents the magnitude of the difference in estimated uncertainty between Helium’s models and the market as reflected in options prices. Models with high Proton Scores indicate potentially profitable trades for selling options when the Helium expected uncertainty is less than the market expected uncertainty. When the Helium expected uncertainty is greater than the market uncertainty, it might be potentially profitable to buy options.
Black Line: The black line is stock closing price (EOD price for Crypto). Hover your mouse for exact numbers. Click and drag to zoom in.
Blue Line: The blue line is Helium’s 90% confidence forecast. The blue line represents the model predicted price made a certain number of days before. In the below picture, the selected blue point means that on August 12 before market open, the model predicted that the price in August 14 would be $76.65 with 90% Confidence that the price will be between $75.54 and $78.20. We highlight this particular example so you can see that the model was wrong on Aug 14 because the closing price (black line) fell below $75.54. Since it’s a 90% confidence interval, we can expect the interval to be wrong about 10% of the time.
When the blue line tracks closely with the black line and a model has a high “Prediction vs Actual Correlation” value, this means a model is more trustworthy.
Green/Red Line: The green/red line is the model’s price prediction for the future, as well as a 90% confidence range. If the model is bullish, it will be green. If the model is bearish, it will be red. If it’s neutral, it will be gray.
Turquoise Line: For some of our models, the turquoise line represents a 90% Confidence interval based on the Implied Volatility from options prices. A wider interval means that the market thinks there is a large probability of big price movements as reflected in options prices.
For a more technical overview of Helium’s charts, click “How to Interpret” in the top right corner of every model.
Understanding The Tabs
Each tab indicates model performance made a number of days before. For example, under “3 Day Performance,” the blue line will represent 90% confidence forecasts made 3 days in advance. Tabs with green values for Prediction vs Actual Correlation and other metrics indicate a more confident model. Values in red indicate a low performing model, which means that predictions and recommended trades are more likely to be wrong.
To add a particular forecast to your Helium news feed, add the ticker symbol in Customize under “Stocks/Crypto.” You can enable email notifications for the stocks you follow and we’ll email you when our models expect a price move.
Understanding the News Feed
If you see a story that grabs your attention, click the purple link to view more sources in the full page reader. Helium aggregates and filters trending stories so that you can understand the bigger picture through the juxtaposition of news from different sources.
Regular News Items:
In addition to Helium Stories, we’ll show you relevant, interesting news from across the web. The fire emoji counts social media shares so you can understand article impact. Customize what type of content you see under Customize as well as add your own RSS feeds. Follow custom keywords to keep up on your interests.
Helium also shows you videos according to your feed preferences and custom interests.
With Helium’s news feed, you can keep up with everything from Basketball to Quantum Computing.
Use our lightweight search engine that doesn’t track you to research investments, read news, and explore new ideas.
How Can I Use Helium Models to Make Trades?
Helium’s models enable you to pursue a variety of trading strategies depending on your comfort with risk. To get inspiration on options trading strategies, take a look at our Trading Strategies. We also like TastyTrades. Helium comes with Portfolio Architect, which allows you to select a portfolio of stocks whose underlying prices are minimally correlated to each-other in order to decrease the volatility (a proxy for risk) of your portfolio. Additionally, discrepencies between market risk and Helium model risk (as described by Proton Score) can be useful indicators to help you set up a trade.
Remember: *When making your own trades, you should not follow Helium’s recommendations verbatim (especially for our options models). You should trade according to how much downside risk is acceptable and never put up more than you’re willing to lose.
We’ll answer all of your questions: contact [at] email.heliumtrades.com
*Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.